Matt Ryan was an MVP and led the best offense, but the defense surrendered 25.4 points per game. Because there is a salary cap. When teams win the players want raises forcing teams to lose some players. This is what is happening to Green Bay an and a dramatic finish. But even with all that, its not even the best Super Bowl of the last two years. This 11-5Oakland Raiders teamfinished second in the AFC West in an era when there were only three divisions. At 133, this defense was nasty by forcing 31 turnovers. Were on a run of blowouts now. Jalen Hurts will not pull a Kurt Warner this year and lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl.. Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens featured one of the most stifling defenses ever assembled, allowing only 970 rushing yards all season and five rushing touchdowns. 113 career TDs compared to 129 interceptions says that he doesn't deserve that victory. The NFL regular season begins in just days. Miamis three points is still the fewest points scored in a Super Bowl. I'll take my chances on a 1-in-15 shot that the Niners put all the pieces back together and raise the Lombardi in February. This is how good the NFC West is: There's a 37% chance that three of the four teams reach the playoffs, and there's even a 3% chance that all four get in. A solid team all around, but more importantly, proficient on offense and defense. Joe Namath may have guaranteed a Super Bowl III win over the Baltimore Colts, but he didn't say anything about being the best team of all time. For starters, the NFC has nine road games this season, so a team from that conference was always likely to occupy the top spot. This is one of the worst rosters in the league, but Houston (at least) has a chance to win games if Watson plays. Cincinnatis late onside kick attempt failed and deprived us of what could have been a classic ending. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draft, with a 15% chance, followed by the Jets (10%), Jaguars (8%) and Eagles (7%). Love the defense, which is good enough to vault Washington to the playoffs again. And that's embodied by an extreme result: The NFC East is the only division that recorded a simulation with a five-win champion. 10. In a 17-game slate, the division matters that much less compared to strength of schedule. As Rodgers' future hung in the balance over the summer, so too did the Packers' projections. As far as the division title is concerned, Baltimore is a narrow favorite over the Browns: 43% to 40%. This defense really let the team down in the biggest game, but they were phenomenal and a top defense throughout the season. Finishing 133 and a high-energy offense by Sean McVay, the Rams were a force to be reckoned with. It was the biggest upset in football history for a reason. Adding Marvin Jones to a young receiving unit that already includes Laviska Shenault Jr. and D.J. Replying to @GoBirds___ and @FanDuel. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, who has thrown for the most passing yards in the league over the last three years and has a emerging star in Calvin Ridley and a game-changing tight end in rookie first-rounderKyle Pitts. And Chicago finds itself with eight games against FPI's top 10 teams: at Rams, at Browns, at Bucs, vs. 49ers, vs. Ravens, at Seahawks and then a home-and-home with the Packers. Andy Reids never-ending two-minute drill robbed us of what could have been an exciting ending. With a hostage crisis in Iran taking attention away from the game, the Raiders and Eagles made sure Americans too concerned to tune into a football game didnt miss much. If Watson doesn't play in 2021, the Texans will be competing for the top overall pick in the 2022 draft. They're returning the 2020 MVP and had the league's most efficient offense last year -- yes, even better than Kansas City's. This contest was more important than nearly any other as it asserted the AFL's legitimacy as a league and proved it could contend with the NFL year in and year out. Tom Brady also led a top offense in his MVP season, finishing with a 133 regular-season record. So, which teams have won it all, but look inferior to their championship brethren in retrospect? Arizona was on its way to the playoffs before Kyler Murray's shoulder injury limited him late in the season, hurting a potential All-Pro campaign. Slightly. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. They are part of the legacy of the biggest game in sports, and they had fought hard an entire winning season. 12. The game itself may not be memorable but Marcus Allens 191-yard performance, which included the greatest run in Super Bowl history, pushes it into the top-30. Keep in mind, those numbers assume there is some chance Wentz plays in each of these games, particularly the later ones. The Browns also have a good defense that improved with the additions of John Johnson III at safety, Anthony Walker and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at linebacker, Jadeveon Clowney at edge rusher, and Greg Newsome II at cornerback. Ken Anderson led his team to 124. Buffalo Bill's in 1992 super bowl against Dalls Cowboys have up 52 points to there offense managed 17pts (How about them cowboys.) that's pretty ba And they do return all 11 starters on offense and defense., If they get by the Rams in Week 3, theyll be favored in every game the rest of the way, and youll regret not taking a flier that you can potentially hedge later., 2. They're the fifth-best team in football and have the fourth-best chance to win it all with a 6% shot, according to FPI. Sure, but it did not make for an entertaining game up until the end. The 2005 Steelers are a prime example. Watson led the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt, carrying an offense that finished 31st in the league in rushing. A full explanation for how FPI works can be found here, but here's the abridged version: The model determines forward-looking strength ratings for every team based on a variety of factors, including team win total, projected starting quarterback, returning starters and past performance on offense, defense and special teams. Zaven Collins has strong NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year capabilities and Isaiah Simmons is expected to take a huge step in his second year. The Dolphins won their second consecutive Super Bowl in a game that was over well before the fourth quarter. Washington Football Team +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total), Ryan Fitzpatrick, a guy who hasnt been to the playoffs in his career, is suddenly going to get to the Super Bowl?. Same goes for this one. And no one has it rougher than the Bears in 2021. Will head coach Zac Taylor actually commit to the run and take the pressure off of Burrow? Kansas City would be favored by 1.3 points over Tampa Bay on a neutral field if the teams were to suit up for a rematch tomorrow, FPI believes. Terry Bradshaw and Franco Harris took over the game from there. What makes a great Super Bowl? The Los Angeles It helps that the Browns arguably have a top three offensive line in football (if not the best). The game lacked memorable moments but is significant because it was Elways last. A 14-win team with a top 10 offense and defense. Going 7-2 in one-score games last year will regress. Herbert will have more protection to connect with a talented cast of offensive weapons as the Chargers rebuilt their offensive line centered around All-Pro Corey Linsley and first-round pick Rashawn Slater. New England Patriots +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total), If Bill Belichick can figure out his QB, the Patriots are going to be extremely dangerous. If the Saints slip a bit, there's a spot open for the Panthers to take a leap in 2021. The universe wont let the Vikings back in the Super Bowl because all of the ones they made in the 70s ended up being unwatchable. I'm sure fans in Baltimore still curse Joe Namath's Super Bowl guarantee. It took just seven wins for Washington to top the NFC East last season, and FPI still doesn't think much of the division a year later. Arizona Cardinals +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Yes, they got older with J.J. Watt and A.J. That's ridiculous. Washington, despite being the reigning champ and making an improvement at quarterback in the form of Ryan Fitzpatrick, is second (29%), followed by the Giants (15%) and Eagles (11%). Buffalo actually led going into halftime before being outscored 21-0 in the second half. He saved the team from the clutches of defeat and led a game-winning fourth-quarter drive. Drafting Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell was a questionable move, especially since Cincinnati's atrocious offensive line led to franchise quarterback Joe Burrow tearing his ACL in his rookie season. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury has to commit to running the ball besides using Murray on designed carries, or else Arizona will experience the same second-half swoon as last year. With the best defense in the game, this 124 Steelers team could not stop a hot road team in the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers. Brown (+1800) Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles (+2200) DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles (+3000) Haason Reddick, LB, Eagles (+3000) Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs (+4000) Article. The teams combined for 11 turnovers. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Granted, having Simms on the field would have undoubtedly bolstered the Giants offensive attack in the postseason, but this is not a countdown of "what ifs" and "should have beens.". Buffalo Bills +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total), They went 15-2 against teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs last year, but via Warren Sharp, heres an incredible stat: The Bills had the good fortune of facing three West Coast teams last season at 1 p.m. The Doomsday Defense vs. the Orange Crush ended up being a forgettable, one-sided affair. Complete team-by-team FPI projections 4. We hold major institutions accountable and expose wrongdoing. It has been updated to include Super Bowl LII. On the other end of the spectrum is Denver. We have all heard this "Cinderella story" one too many times, but it's worth going over for the purposes of this piece. A year before perfection. When Indianapolis traded for Wentz, the organization bet on a bounce-back year from the former Eagles quarterback. However, New York went just 10-6 in the regular season. Ah, the iconic image of Trent Dilfer hoisting his arms in victory. Kirk Cousins may not be elite, but he's a pretty good quarterback. They took down what was supposed to be the greatest team in NFL history and instead became one of the least likely Super Bowl champions in recent memory. Any NFL fan intuitively knows that basing strength of schedule on the previous season's record is a fool's errand because teams' abilities change too much from year to year to go off that, not to mention the fact that a single NFL season is not always a great indicator for the talent of a team. This was actually the closest one they played. They face an NFL-high three teams coming off a bye week. As the tweet said, only 28 players have achieved that in the last decade-plus. Buffalo also addedEmmanuel Sanders to the mix, making the passing game even more formidable. Super Bowl MVP Pick. People think of Kerry Collins when they think of this 124 Giants squad, but this defense was the real story. The Jets just didn't look all that good on their way to the mountaintop. The Super Bowl has been around 55 years, yet more than a third of the league has never hoisted a Vince Lombardi Trophy. Seriously, the Vikings are never allowed to make another Super Bowl. Twenty-two women have said in lawsuits that Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior during massage sessions. Plenty of fans were made because the 1998 Minnesota Vikings are the best team of all time to never make a Super Bowl. Sure the game was over by the end of the second quarter, but watching Steve Young (six touchdown passes) and Jerry Rice (three touchdown receptions) tear up the Chargers was a joy to watch. Peyton Manning dragged him and the rest of the team there. This game will be decided at quarterback, and the daring superstar who joins Brady as the only quarterback to appear in three Super Bowls in his first six seasons is the pick here. Again, FPI doesn't think the division is much-improved. What Allen accomplished in 2020 was MVP-caliber, even if he didn't take home the league's highest individual honor. The first five weeks of Indianapolis' schedule are rough, as the Colts host the Seahawks and Rams before hitting the road to face the Titans, Dolphins and Ravens. The game was a blowout but did give us one of the most iconic moments in Super Bowl history: Don Beebe chasing down a prematurely celebrating Leon Lett. Keep in mind, the Larry Fitzgerald touchdown catch (pictured above) was to go ahead with 2:37 left in the game. We cant put a Super Bowl featuring Rex Grossman too high on the list, but Peyton Manning winning his first ring salvages this one.

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